Analysis of Forex Trading Techniques Japanese Candlestick Foreign Exchange Market 16



How effective is Japanese Candlestick method of technical analysis?
Techniques Japanese Candlestick Foreign Exchange Market 16

What is a Japanese Candlestick?


Japanese Candlesticks are a technical analysis tool that traders use to chart and analyze the price movement of securities. The concept of candlestick charting was developed by Munehisa Homma, a Japanese rice trader. During routine trading, Homma discovered that the rice market was influenced by the emotions of traders, while still acknowledging the effect of demand and supply on the price of rice.

The Benefits of Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts are one of the most common tools traders use for technical analysis. Most traders prefer to use the candlestick chart because it can help them to:
  1. Determine the current state of the market at a glance.
    Just by looking at the color and length of a candlestick, traders can determine instantly if the market is strengthening (becoming bullish) or weakening (becoming bearish).
  2. See the direction of the market more easily.
    On a candlestick chart, the color and shape of the candlestick can help traders determine if an uptrend is part of bullish momentum or simply a bearish spike.
  3. Identify market patterns quickly.
    Candlestick charts display specific bullish and bearish reversal patterns that cannot be seen on other charts.





Homma developed candlesticks that graphically displayed the nature of price movements by using different colors to denote the differences. Traders can use the candlesticks to identify patterns of price action and make decisions based on the short-term direction of the prices.

As a legendary rice trader of financial instruments, Homma dominated the rice markets and became popular for discovering the candlestick charting method. When the Japanese stock market began in the 1870s, local technical analysts incorporated Homma’s candlestick methodology into the trading process. American technical analyst Steve Nison introduced the technique to the West through his book “Japanese Candlestick Charting Technique.” Japanese Candlestick charting is now a popular technical indicator that traders use to analyze financial markets.
  

How Japanese Candlesticks Works

Japanese Candlesticks provide more detailed and accurate information about price movements, as compared to bar charts. They provide a graphical representation of the supply and demand behind each time period’s price action.



Each candlestick includes a central portion that shows the distance between the open and the close of the security being traded, the area referred to as the body. The upper shadow is the price distance between the top of the body and the high for the trading period. The lower shadow is the price distance between the bottom of the body and the low for the trading period

The closing price of the security being traded determines whether the candlestick is bullish or bearish. The real body is usually white if the candlestick closes at a higher price than it opened. In such a case, the closing price is located at the top of the real body and the opening price is located at the bottom.

If the security being traded closed at a lower price than it opened for the time period, the body is usually filled up or black in color. The closing price is located at the bottom of the body and the opening price is located at the top. Modern candlesticks now replace the white and black colors of the body with more colors, such as red, green, and blue. Traders can choose among the colors when using electronic trading platforms.


Japanese Candlesticks vs. Bar Charts

Both Japanese candlesticks and bar charts provide the same information to traders but in different graphical formats. Candlesticks are more visual, presenting traders a more graphically clear picture of price action. They also display graphically the forces (supply and demand) that contribute to each time period’s price movement.

On a candlestick chart, the area above and below the body is known as shadows. The length of the candlestick body and the shadows are both important indicators of price action.

Candlestick Patterns

Japanese Candlesticks form patterns that traders use to analyze price movement. Some examples of candlestick patterns include:

Doji: This is a candlestick formed when the opening and closing prices are the same, or very close to each other. The shadows may have different lengths.

Gravestone Doji: This pattern resembles a gravestone, hence the name. It is formed when the open and the close occur at the low of the period.

Dragonfly Doji: This pattern is formed when the opening and the closing prices of a security are at the high of the period. It includes a long lower shadow and signals a reversal of an uptrend.


Bearish Engulfing Pattern: This pattern indicates bears in control of the market. It consists of a large body that completely engulfs the body of the previous candlestick. It is a “down” candlestick, one where the closing price is below the opening price. When it appears, it signals a bearish reversal.


Bullish Engulfing Pattern: The pattern is often formed at the end of a downtrend. It is comprised of a smaller down candlestick whose body is engulfed by a larger up candlestick.

Hammer: The Hammer pattern includes a long tail on its lower end and a near-negligible upper shadow. It is typically a signal of a market reversal, either bullish or bearish.


 Reading Candlesticks
The appearance of the candlestick body and its shadows potentially provide a lot of information about the state of the market and where it’s going.

The length of the candlestick body shows where the majority of the trading took place. A long body suggests that the market is trading heavily in one direction, while a small body indicates lighter trading.

In our examples, you’ll notice that green candlesticks appear in an “up” candle; in other words, the currency closed higher than the previous candle’s close. Red candlesticks show a “down” candle, indicating that the currency closed below the previous candle’s open. You may also see uptrends represented by white candlesticks and downtrends depicted by black candlesticks.

Examples of long and short bodies and shadows on the daily EUR/USD chart






The appearance of shadows can also tell you which way the market is heading. Long shadows show that trading went far past the open and close values while short shadows indicate most of the trading happened near the open and close. Typically, long shadows signify a big change in market direction while short shadows usually indicate that the market has changed little during the candle’s timeframe.



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What is the best way to learn how to trade options?
Trading options requires three strategic choices: deciding which direction you think a stock will move, how high or low the price will go and the time frame it will all take place.

Options trading can be complex, even more so than stock trading. When you buy a stock, you decide how many shares you want, and your broker fills the order at the prevailing market price or at a limit price. Trading options not only requires some of these elements, but also many others, including a more extensive process for opening an account.



Opening an options trading account

Before you can even get started you have to clear a few hurdles. Because of the amount of capital required and the complexity of predicting multiple moving parts, brokers need to know a bit more about a potential investor before awarding them a permission slip to start trading options.

Brokerage firms screen potential options traders to assess their trading experience, their understanding of the risks in options and their financial preparedness.
You’ll need to provide a prospective broker:
  • Investment objectives such as income, growth, capital preservation or speculation
  • Trading experience, including your knowledge of investing, how long you’ve been trading stocks or options, how many trades you make per year and the size of your trades
  • Personal financial information, including liquid net worth (or investments easily sold for cash), annual income, total net worth and employment information
  • The types of options you want to trade
Based on your answers, the broker assigns you an initial trading level (typically 1 to 4, though a fifth level is becoming more common) that is your key to placing certain types of options trades.

Screening should go both ways. The broker you choose to trade options with is your most important investing partner. Finding the broker that offers the tools, research, guidance and support you need is especially important for investors who are new to options trading.



Description
Options Made Simple is an 8-class series on stock options intended to take participants from beginner to intermediate options trading.  It is the ideal program for a stock trader who wants to add options to their possible trading strategies.  This program covers all of the basics of beginning options:
  • Calls & puts 
  • Buying and selling 
  • Opening trades 
  • Closing trades  
  • An entire class on option time decay (one of the most misunderstood components of options).  
Besides the basics, you will learn two simple strategies so you can start implementing these trades right away, as well as an entire class on day-trading options.

If you have a general understanding of the stock market and have heard people talk about options but never really learned to trade them, this class is perfect for you.  The training is simple, to the point, yet extremely thorough.

If you are a skeptic of stock options you may be surprised just how flexible they can be and how they can:
  • Reduce your capital costs
  • Reduce your risk per trade
  • Increase your ROI
Option traders who really learn to understand options, consistently out perform regular stock trades and find the option to add great flexibility and leverage.




Options as Derivatives

Options belong to the larger group of securities known as derivatives. This word is often associated with excessive risk-taking and having the ability to bring down economies. Even Warren Buffett has referred to derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction.” That perception, however, is really overblown.

All “derivative” means is that its price is dependent on, or derived from the price of something else. Think of it this way: wine is a derivative of grapes; ketchup is a derivative of tomatoes; a stock option is a derivative of a stock.

Options are derivatives of financial securities—their value depends on the price of some other asset. That is essentially what the term, derivative, means. There are many different types of securities that fall under the label of derivative, including calls, puts, futures, forwards, swaps (of which there are many types), and mortgage-backed securities, among many others. In the 2008 crisis, mortgage-backed securities and a particular type of swap caused all the trouble. Options were largely blameless.


If you know how options work, and how to use them appropriately, you can have a real advantage in the market. Most importantly, options can allow you to put the odds in your favor. If using options for speculation doesn't fit your style, no problem—you can use options without speculating.

Even if you decide never to use options, it is still important to understand how companies you invest in use them. For instance, they might hedge foreign-exchange risk, or give employees potential stock ownership in the form of stock options. Most multi-national corporations today use options in some form or another.


Which are the best strategies for Forex trading?




Forex trading is all about eliminating the losing trades and achieving more winning ones.
This is largely achieved thanks to proven Forex trading strategies. Using these strategies, a trader develops for himself a set of rules that help to take advantage of Forex trading.

Quite often, traders will rely on trading strategies that haven’t been tested thoroughly, setting themselves up for a failure. The truth is, you can spend hours searching all over the internet for the right strategy – and have no luck finding one.

The only solution is to try out the leading strategies for yourself and see what actually works.

Forex trade strategies and goals

Before discussing trading setups and possible strategies, we need to first understand why one would consider trading Forex in the first place. There are two main reasons: hedging and speculation.

Hedging refers to companies protecting themselves from losses. They get their daily profits from any overseas country (that has paid revenue in a foreign currency). Then, they transfer it back to their own country, expecting fluctuation in the currency.

This practice isn’t really relevant to Forex strategies.

On the other hand, speculation refers to predicting a move that a company might make in a certain situation. If done correctly, these predictions greatly improve trading results.

Speculation is what day trading is all about. With the help of decent strategies, you can progress in the Forex trading world and ultimately develop your own trading strategy. The downside is that this is a time-consuming and difficult process.

The good news is that there are pre-made strategies available for you to try.
Although it is better to play it safe, especially if you’re new to the game, you need to change your tactics from time to time. This may allow you to see a profit margin you could have missed otherwise.

What is the best Forex trading strategy?

Here we have a few methods that will help you quickly change tactics and gain pips.
We’re going to provide you with an overview of strategies that have worked for many years, so that you can research the ones that are of interest to you. These are the Forex trading strategies that work, and they have been proven to work by many traders.

The Bladerunner Trade

This is suitable for all timeframes and currency pairings. It is, at this moment, one of the trending strategies in the market. The Bladerunner Trade is a price action strategy.

Daily Fibonacci Pivot Trade

This trade uses daily pivots only. However, it can be extended to a longer timeline. It combines Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Fibonacci trade can incorporate any number of pivots.

Bolly Band Bounce Trade

This strategy is perfect for a ranging market. If you use it in combination with confirming signals, it works really well. If you are interested in Bollinger Bands strategy, this one is definitely worth checking out.

Forex Overlapping Fibonacci Trade

These strategies are a favourite among many traders. The reliability tends to be a bit lower, but used in combination with appropriate confirming signals, they become extremely accurate.

The Pop ‘n’ Stop Trade

Trying to chase the price when it goes upside rarely works. That is, unless you know this trick. This Forex trading strategy gives you a simple tip so you know whether the price will continue to rise or decrease.




Trading the Forex Fractal

This is more of a concept rather than a strategy, but you need to know this if you want to understand what the prices are doing. This offer you a lesson in market fundamentals, which will really help you to trade more effectively.

Currency trading strategies are a game of trial and error. It may be worth trying out the strategies from list above to see if any work for you. However, we will look at two further strategies which tend to be more common than the ones previously mentioned.
What’s more, they have been consistently proven to work.

Scalping in a nutshell

Many consider scalping to be tiresome and time-consuming. Indeed, not every trader can successfully pull it off. It may really seem that scalping takes the fun out of the best Forex strategy.
On the other hand, it really does work.

If you are on the lookout for a reliable Forex strategy, this might be your safest choice. As a day trader, you will dip in and out of the market once or twice a day and always carry a position into another period. Ideally, the profit will come back.

If you’re a savvy scalper, this process is usually far more frenetic. You will trade in and out of the Forex markets several times per day. The profit margins may appear small but they’re also steady.
The more you scalp, the more you will make.

For example, if you trade EUR/USD pair and the price of either currency jumped up 20 pips, you get a slight profit for taking an action.

The result is a tiny profit, but that is a profit made in a single minute. The amount and consistency of your overall profits depend on your commitment and reflexes.

If scalpers want to truly take advantage of the news releases, they should wait for the most important ones. When you scalp, you need to remember when GDP, unemployment figures and inflation rates are about to be released.

These factors affect trading strategies, particularly in the currency trading market, where scalping can be most profitable.


Positional trading – consistent Forex trading strategy

While scalping can certainly teach you to trade the currency market, it takes a lot of time and effort. When you scalp, you have to sit in front of the computer for long periods of time.

Positional trading is an interesting way to trade Forex online. While it can take you only a few hours a week, it can provide you with quite extensive profits.

So how does positional trading work?

Positional trading is all about having your positions opened for a long period of time, so you can catch some large market moves. The rule of thumb is to avoid using high leverage and keep a close eye on the currency swaps.

Sometimes these swaps can cost you more than your actual profit.

With positional trading, you can learn not only Forex trading strategies but also the skills you need to become successful. It is a good method of achieving high profits, but it can also put your emotions to test.
Traders may feel the stress from having their funds affected by short term moves. Quite often, traders will have to fight the urge to close their trade when it’s losing points.
With positional trading, you have to dedicate your time to analysing the market and predicting potential market moves. However, there is almost no time spent on the execution of your trading strategy.
Simply start by picking up the pair you know the most about. Calculate the possible volume of your transaction, see what the swap is and how you can break even, analyse the best moment to enter the trade.
And when this moment comes, go for it.

Final thoughts

There are many Forex strategies, yet it is hard to say which is the best one. Ultimately, every trader has to decide for himself.
Forex is a process of trial and error. To have a chance at becoming successful, you have to get out and try every strategy. Experiment, change and improve before you choose the one strategy that suits you the best.
Chances are, it’s going to be the strategy you developed yourself.


What are the criteria for a script to come into futures and derivatives?

A foreign exchange derivative is a financial derivative whose payoff depends on the foreign exchange rate(s) of two (or more) currencies. These instruments are commonly used for currency speculation and arbitrage or for hedging foreign exchange risk. 



The global forex market is the largest market in the world with over $4 trillion traded daily, according to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data. The forex market, however, is not the only way for investors and traders to participate in foreign exchange. While not nearly as large as the forex market, the currency futures market has a respectable daily average closer to $100 billion.


What Are Currency Futures?

In finance, a futures contract (more colloquially, futures) is a standardized forward contract, a legal agreement to buy or sell something at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future, between parties not known to each other. The asset transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price the parties agree to buy and sell the asset for is known as the forward price. The specified time in the future—which is when delivery and payment occur—is known as the delivery date. Because it is a function of an underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative product. 


Contracts are negotiated at futures exchanges, which act as a marketplace between buyers and sellers. The buyer of a contract is said to be long position holder, and the selling party is said to be short position holder. As both parties risk their counter-party walking away if the price goes against them, the contract may involve both parties lodging a margin of the value of the contract with a mutually trusted third party. For example, in gold futures trading, the margin varies between 2% and 20% depending on the volatility of the spot market.

The first futures contracts were negotiated for agricultural commodities, and later futures contracts were negotiated for natural resources such as oil. Financial futures were introduced in 1972, and in recent decades, currency futures, interest rate futures and stock market index futures have played an increasingly large role in the overall futures markets. 

The original use of futures contracts was to mitigate the risk of price or exchange rate movements by allowing parties to fix prices or rates in advance for future transactions. This could be advantageous when (for example) a party expects to receive payment in foreign currency in the future, and wishes to guard against an unfavorable movement of the currency in the interval before payment is received.

However, futures contracts also offer opportunities for speculation in that a trader who predicts that the price of an asset will move in a particular direction can contract to buy or sell it in the future at a price which (if the prediction is correct) will yield a profit.


What Is a Derivative? 



 

A derivative is a financial security with a value that is reliant upon or derived from, an underlying asset or group of assets—a benchmark. The derivative itself is a contract between two or more parties, and the derivative derives its price from fluctuations in the underlying asset.

The most common underlying assets for derivatives are stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, and market indexes. These assets are commonly purchased through brokerages.

Derivatives can trade over-the-counter (OTC) or on an exchange. OTC derivatives constitute a greater proportion of the derivatives market. OTC-traded derivatives, generally have a greater possibility of counterparty risk. Counterparty risk is the danger that one of the parties involved in the transaction might default. These parties trade between two private parties and are unregulated.
Conversely, derivatives that are exchange-traded are standardized and more heavily regulated.


The Basics of a Derivative

Derivatives can be used to hedge a position, speculate on the directional movement of an underlying asset, or give leverage to holdings. Their value comes from the fluctuations of the values of the underlying asset.

Originally, derivatives were used to ensure balanced exchange rates for goods traded internationally. With the differing values of national currencies, international traders needed a system to account for differences. Today, derivatives are based upon a wide variety of transactions and have many more uses. There are even derivatives based on weather data, such as the amount of rain or the number of sunny days in a region.

For example, imagine a European investor, whose investment accounts are all denominated in euros (EUR). This investor purchases shares of a U.S. company through a U.S. exchange using U.S. dollars (USD). Now the investor is exposed to exchange-rate risk while holding that stock. Exchange-rate risk the threat that the value of the euro will increase in relation to the USD. If the value of the euro rises, any profits the investor realizes upon selling the stock become less valuable when they are converted into euros.

To hedge this risk, the investor could purchase a currency derivative to lock in a specific exchange rate. Derivatives that could be used to hedge this kind of risk include currency futures and currency swaps.

A speculator who expects the euro to appreciate compared to the dollar could profit by using a derivative that rises in value with the euro. When using derivatives to speculate on the price movement of an underlying asset, the investor does not need to have a holding or portfolio presence in the underlying asset.


Common Forms of Derivatives

There are many different types of derivatives that can be used for risk management, for speculation, and to leverage a position. Derivatives is a growing marketplace and offer products to fit nearly any need or risk tolerance.

Futures

A futures contract—also known as simply a futures—is an agreement between two parties for the purchase and delivery of an asset at an agreed upon price at a future date. Futures trade on an exchange, and the contracts are standardized. Traders will use a futures contract to hedge their risk or speculate on the price of an underlying asset. The parties involved in the futures transaction are obligated to fulfill a commitment to buy or sell the underlying asset.

For example, say that Nov. 6, 2019, Company-A buys a futures contract for oil at a price of $62.22 per barrel that expires Dec. 19, 2019. The company does this because it needs oil in December and is concerned that the price will rise before the company needs to buy. Buying an oil futures contract hedges the company's risk because the seller on the other side of the contract is obligated to deliver oil to Company-A for $62.22 per barrel once the contract has expired. Assume oil prices rise to $80 per barrel by Dec. 19, 2019. Company-A can accept delivery of the oil from the seller of the futures contract, but if it no longer needs the oil, it can also sell the contract before expiration and keep the profits.

In this example, it is possible that both the futures buyer and seller were hedging risk. Company-A needed oil in the future and wanted to offset the risk that the price may rise in December with a long position in an oil futures contract. The seller could be an oil company that was concerned about falling oil prices and wanted to eliminate that risk by selling or "shorting" a futures contract that fixed the price it would get in December.

It is also possible that the seller or buyer—or both—of the oil futures parties were speculators with the opposite opinion about the direction of December oil. If the parties involved in the futures contract were speculators, it is unlikely that either of them would want to make arrangements for delivery of several barrels of crude oil. Speculators can end their obligation to purchase or delivery the underlying commodity by closing—unwinding—their contract before expiration with an offsetting contract.

For example, the futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trades on the CME represents 1,000 barrels of oil. If the price of oil rose from $62.22 to $80 per barrel, the trader with the long position—the buyer—in the futures contract would have profited $17,780 [($80 - $62.22) X 1,000 = $17,780]. The trader with the short position—the seller—in the contract would have a loss of $17,780.

Not all futures contracts are settled at expiration by delivering the underlying asset. Many derivatives are cash-settled, which means that the gain or loss in the trade is simply an accounting cash flow to the trader's brokerage account. Futures contracts that are cash settled include many interest rate futures, stock index futures, and more unusual instruments like volatility futures or weather futures.


Forwards

Forward contracts—known simply as forwards—are similar to futures, but do not trade on an exchange, only over-the-counter. When a forward contract is created, the buyer and seller may have customized the terms, size and settlement process for the derivative. As OTC products, forward contracts carry a greater degree of counterparty risk for both buyers and sellers.

Counterparty risks are a kind of credit risk in that the buyer or seller may not be able to live up to the obligations outlined in the contract. If one party of the contract becomes insolvent, the other party may have no recourse and could lose the value of its position. Once created, the parties in a forward contract can offset their position with other counterparties, which can increase the potential for counterparty risks as more traders become involved in the same contract.

Swaps

Swaps are another common type of derivative, often used to exchange one kind of cash flow with another. For example, a trader might use an interest rate swap to switch from a variable interest rate loan to a fixed interest rate loan, or vice versa.

Imagine that Company XYZ has borrowed $1,000,000 and pays a variable rate of interest on the loan that is currently 6%. XYZ may be concerned about rising interest rates that will increase the costs of this loan or encounter a lender that is reluctant to extend more credit while the company has this variable rate risk.

Assume that XYZ creates a swap with Company QRS, which is willing to exchange the payments owed on the variable rate loan for the payments owed on a fixed rate loan of 7%. That means that XYZ will pay 7% to QRS on its $1,000,000 principal, and QRS will pay XYZ 6% interest on the same principal. At the beginning of the swap, XYZ will just pay QRS the 1% difference between the two swap rates.

If interest rates fall so that the variable rate on the original loan is now 5%, Company XYZ will have to pay Company QRS the 2% difference on the loan. If interest rates rise to 8%, then QRS would have to pay XYZ the 1% difference between the two swap rates. Regardless of how interest rates change, the swap has achieved XYZ's original objective of turning a variable rate loan into a fixed rate loan.

Swaps can also be constructed to exchange currency exchange rate risk or the risk of default on a loan or cash flows from other business activities. Swaps related to the cash flows and potential defaults of mortgage bonds are an extremely popular kind of derivative—a bit too popular. In the past. It was the counterparty risk of swaps like this that eventually spiraled into the credit crisis of 2008.


Options

An options contract is similar to a futures contract in that it is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined future date for a specific price. The key difference between options and futures is that, with an option, the buyer is not obliged to exercise their agreement to buy or sell. It is an opportunity only, not an obligation—futures are obligations. As with futures, options may be used to hedge or speculate on the price of the underlying asset.

Imagine an investor owns 100 shares of a stock worth $50 per share they believe the stock's value will rise in the future. However, this investor is concerned about potential risks and decides to hedge their position with an option. The investor could buy a put option that gives them the right to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock for $50 per share—known as the strike price—until a specific day in the future—known as the expiration date.

Assume that the stock falls in value to $40 per share by expiration and the put option buyer decides to exercise their option and sell the stock for the original strike price of $50 per share. If the put option cost the investor $200 to purchase, then they have only lost the cost of the option because the strike price was equal to the price of the stock when they originally bought the put. A strategy like this is called a protective put because it hedges the stock's downside risk.

Alternatively, assume an investor does not own the stock that is currently worth $50 per share. However, they believe that the stock will rise in value over the next month. This investor could buy a call option that gives them the right to buy the stock for $50 before or at expiration. Assume that this call option cost $200 and the stock rose to $60 before expiration. The call buyer can now exercise their option and buy a stock worth $60 per share for the $50 strike price, which is an initial profit of $10 per share. A call option represents 100 shares, so the real profit is $1,000 less the cost of the option—the premium—and any brokerage commission fees.

In both examples, the put and call option sellers are obligated to fulfill their side of the contract if the call or put option buyer chooses to exercise the contract. However, if a stock's price is above the strike price at expiration, the put will be worthless and the seller—the option writer—gets to keep the premium as the option expires. If the stock's price is below the strike price at expiration, the call will be worthless and the call seller will keep the premium. Some options can be exercised before expiration. These are known as American-style options, but their use and early exercise are rare.

Advantages of Derivatives

As the above examples illustrate, derivatives can be a useful tool for businesses and investors alike. They provide a way to lock in prices, hedge against unfavorable movements in rates, and mitigate risks—often for a limited cost. In addition, derivatives can often be purchased on margin—that is, with borrowed funds—which makes them even less expensive.


Just as shares are bought or sold in the market, a derivative is also an instrument that is traded. Its value is derived from the underlying asset. Futures and options are the two types of derivatives which are commonly traded.




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